Model Outputs & Analysis

Strategic Framework

The Profit Tree

Total profit is the product of how many events you run and how much profit each one generates. Profit per event breaks down into how many people walk through the door and how much profit each person contributes. Profit per person is what they sell you, multiplied by the margin you keep.

Total Annual Profit

£32.7m at 2026 run rate

Events × Profit per Event

Lever 1

Number of Events

~158/month

18 regions · 1,112 areas

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Geographic Expansion

859 white-space targets identified

Expand into untapped postcode districts adjacent to proven areas

Model 3

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Seasonal Scheduling

Jan/Feb: +27% · Jul: -23%

Maximise event density in Jan–Feb; reduce or reposition July events

Model 1

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Repeat Timing

896 area-months ready for return now

Use optimal cooldown periods — don’t revisit too soon or too late

Model 1

Lever 2

Profit per Event

£13,644 margin

People per Event × Profit per Person

Lever 2a

People per Event

~25 avg attendance

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Venue & Area Quality

High footfall venues: 4.0 score vs Low: 1.0

Prioritise venues scoring 4+ on footfall — 3.2× revenue impact

Model 5

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Marketing & Awareness

FB spend, RSVPs, leaflets, repeat visit awareness

Predict attendance per event to decide 3rd dealer, cash float, assistant

Model 6

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Area Demographics

Sweet spot: market towns, 2–20k pop, community spirit, old money

Network effect in smaller areas — everyone knows what’s on

Model 3 + 5

Lever 2b

Profit per Person

~£545 normalised

Revenue

Revenue per Person

~£1,298 avg spend

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Stock Quality / Area Wealth

Top quartile: £31,902 vs Bottom: £3,190 per event

Old money areas hold the stock even if economically deprived now

Model 5

Margin

Margin %

~42% gross

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Dealer Quality

Tier A/B: £3,900 norm margin vs C/D: £3,140

Deploy top dealers to highest-value events

Model 2

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Estimation Accuracy

Blanket 30% reduction penalises honest estimators

Per-dealer calibration fixes morale and catches inflation

Model 7

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Resale Channels

eBay avg £70 · Fellows avg £296 · Elmwoods avg £925

Route higher-value items to specialist auctions

SKU Data

Model Context

Business Growth Trajectory

Monthly average revenue per event alongside event volume. The step-change in January 2026 is dramatic — but how much is real operational growth vs gold price?

Nominal revenue per event jumped 4.2× from Dec 2024 to Jan 2026. But gold prices rose 1.8× over the same period. We need to separate the commodity tailwind from genuine operational improvement. See the next section.

Critical Adjustment

Nominal vs Commodity-Normalised Revenue

Gold is ~80% of revenue, silver ~9%. Both have surged (gold 2.4×, silver 3.5× since 2023). This chart strips out commodity price movement using a blended index weighted by each event's actual gold/silver/other revenue mix. Normalised revenue shows real operational performance in constant commodity terms (Jan 2024 = 100).

Nominal Growth

4.2×

Dec '24 → Jan '26

Commodity Price Effect

1.9×

Commodity index 124 → 240

Real Operational Growth

2.2×

£6,649 → £14,399 normalised

The real story: 2025 saw massive volume scaling (40→1,298 events) but per-event yield fell in real terms (£9.7k→£6.0k normalised) — classic growth-vs-quality tradeoff. Then in Q1 2026, both volume AND real yield jumped hard. The 2.2× real growth is still very strong, but commodity prices account for roughly half of the nominal revenue increase. A correction in gold/silver prices would compress margins significantly.

Commodity Context

Gold & Silver Price Movement

Monthly gold and silver prices in GBP per troy ounce. Gold has risen 2.4× since Apr 2023; silver has risen 3.1×. Both are at historic highs.

Key risk: If gold and silver return to 2024 levels (~£1,800/oz gold, ~£22/oz silver), revenue per event would fall ~50% from current nominal figures even with identical operational performance. The platform should track commodity-normalised metrics alongside nominal — separating what's controllable (venue selection, dealer quality, scheduling) from what isn't (metal prices).

Model 1 — Timing Engine

Seasonal Revenue Index

Commodity-normalised, within-year seasonal index. Each month's normalised revenue is compared to its own year's average (not the all-time average), then averaged across years. This strips out both commodity price moves and year-over-year growth to isolate true seasonality.

January–February is genuinely the strongest period (~26–29% above average) even after stripping out commodity price inflation. July remains the trough at 23% below. The rest of the year is relatively flat. January/February are worth prioritising for top venues and dealers.

Model 1 — Timing Engine

Diminishing Returns Analysis

Average revenue by visit number to the same area. Does performance decay with repeat visits?

Counter to expectation, returns increase with repeat visits. This is likely survivorship bias — areas that reach visit 4+ are ones performing well enough to warrant rebooking. But it validates the strategy of returning to proven areas rather than constantly seeking new ones.

Model 2 — Dealer Performance

Dealer Leaderboard

Composite score weights: performance vs area average (30%), consistency (25%), margin % (25%), volume (20%). Location-adjusted score controls for area quality — 1.07 means 7% better than average dealer in the same locations. Click column headers to sort.

Rank	Name	Tier	Events	Avg Rev	Avg Margin	Margin %	Loc Adj	% Above Avg	Score

Model 2 — Category Analysis

Dealer Category Expertise

Expertise score relative to all dealers in each category. 50 = average; higher = specialist. Colour intensity reflects score. Empty cells mean insufficient data (<15 items).

Dealer	Watches	Gold	Jewellery	Silver	Cameras	Medals	Other

Model 3 — Area Intelligence

Regional Performance

Average event revenue by region, ordered by performance. Excludes the single "Premium" event (outlier at £110k).

Model 5 — Pattern Analysis

What Makes a Great Area

Top-quartile vs bottom-quartile comparison across all measured characteristics, plus the features most correlated with high revenue.

Top vs Bottom Quartile

Feature Importance

Payout volume is the #1 predictor (r=0.97) — higher-spend areas generate higher revenue. Footfall (r=0.69) and venue quality (r=0.44) are the next strongest signals. Demographics and venue familiarity also matter. Gold-heavy areas outperform SKU-heavy ones.